WCA January 2019

Telecom news

China is expected to roll out 5G for commercial use in 2020, with at least a 300,000-plus advantage over the USA in cell sites Beijing identified 5G as a national priority in its “Made in China 2025” technology roadmap and has worked to set global technical standards. As noted by the New York-based business magazine Fortune , China’s government actively promotes the efforts of its mobile carriers and equipment manufacturers to develop 5G technologies. According to the Fortune “Data Sheet”, a daily newsletter on tech news (19 th October), some experts think China is winning the 5G race. Fortune cited the example of Huawei Technologies, the largest Chinese telecom equipment maker, with its billions invested in 5G research and its ownership of a critical patent for “polar coding”, a breakthrough method for correcting errors in data transmission invented by Turkish scientist Erdal Arikan. Additionally, a recent Deloitte study (“5G deployment: the Chance to Lead for a Decade”) found that, since 2015, China has built 350,000 5G cell sites compared with fewer than 30,000 in the USA. This is in line with an American pattern of leaving development of 5G to the private sector. AT&T and Verizon were rushing to introduce 5G in some USA cities by the end of 2018, but mobile devices compatible with the new networks will be available only this year. However, Fortune pointed out, the Trump administration has focused on 5G networks in its wider dispute with China over technology and trade. Washington barred China’s two largest telecommunications equip- ment makers, Huawei and ZTE, from competing in the USA market, citing national security concerns, and sought to deter strategic allies including Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the United Kingdom from accepting 5G services from Chinese telecommunications equip- ment companies.

Originally known as Groupe Spéciale Mobile, with an all-European membership, London-based GSMA now represents more than 750 mobile operators worldwide, together with 350 companies and organisations in the broader mobile ecosystem. The third annual “Global Mobile Trends” report from GSMA Intelligence, the research arm of the GSMA, provides data and analysis on the direction of the communications industry around the world. The research on which Global Mobile Trends is based relies on data from GSMA Intelligence and selected third-party sources. Here are key takeaways from the latest edition which, according to Peter Jarich, head of GSMA Intelligence, provides “a comprehensive deep dive into the key themes and issues shaping [the mobile] industry” today: • The next generation of Internet users will be mobile only. By 2025, 3.7 billion people – 72 per cent of the global Internet base – will be accessing the Internet exclusively via mobile. Around half of new users coming online over this period will come from just five markets: China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan • 5G is here – in a few markets at least. It will account for about 15 per cent of global mobile connections by 2025 but will be driven by only a handful of markets: China, Japan, Korea and the USA. Europe could be a 5G leader, too – but only if spectrum availability and fragmentation issues are resolved • The 5G/Internet of Things (IoT) opportunity is shifting to the enterprise. 5G and IoT will open up new opportunities in a range of enterprise sectors, and an additional ten billion industrial IoT connections will be made between now and 2025. This will also drive a shift to decentralised and edge computing, which will bring telecoms and cloud players (particularly Amazon and Microsoft) into a mix of competition and partnership in servicing the vast range of enterprise sectors, overhauling operations with advanced connectivity and analytics • Connectivity will be commoditised in the IoT era. Providing connectivity will account for only around five per cent of the global IoT revenue opportunity by 2025 ($51 billion). The vast majority of growth will come from the applications, platforms and services layer, which will account for more than two-thirds of IoT revenue ($754 billion) • Content is king – but expensive. Netflix spent $6.3 billion on original programming in 2017, not far behind Time Warner ($8 billion), Fox ($8 billion), and Disney ($7.8 billion). Netflix remains the driver behind the rise of streaming, which continues to eat into time on traditional TV. For most operators, this trend means that partnering or licensing content is a more realistic prospect than acquiring or creating content in an expensive marketplace • Volume growth is clearer than revenue growth. An additional 16 billion IoT connections (industrial and consumer) will be added by 2025, alongside on-going 4G and 5G connections growth. However, until fresh revenue streams are unlocked in these new areas, the revenue outlook for operators is modest. Global mobile revenues topped $1 trillion in 2017, but revenue growth is likely to stay at around 1 percent a year in the period out to 2025. In other news of the GSMA, on 8 th October it launched the Innovation Fund for Rural Connectivity, aimed at expanding digital inclusion through innovative technology solutions for connecting unserved rural communities. The Fund – backed by the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) and managed by the GSMA – will provide grants up to $390,000 and is open to companies able to deploy solutions in Uganda or Ghana in partnership with MTN Uganda and Vodafone Ghana, respectively. Funded projects will test new ways of deploying mobile broadband networks in rural areas, looking to demonstrate commercially sustainable models that can be scaled to and replicated in similar environments. ‘Global Mobile Trends’ from GSMA outlines the key megatrends that will shape the industry worldwide in the period to 2025

Illustrations: BigStockPhoto.com • Artist: Asmati

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Wire & Cable ASIA –January/February 2019

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