WCA March 2020

Telecom news

It seems that the demonstrations used by operators to show the possible impact of 5G – such as piloting a drone in another country, or 8K VR streaming – are impressive, but just not relevant to most consumers’ everyday lives. For the huge majority of applications in 2019/2020, 4G remains perfectly adequate. Peter Corbett, Deloitte partner and national telecommunications lead, comments that a clear business case can be made for 4G, with subscribers looking for faster download speeds and streamed content. In comparison 5G, as yet, has little advantage to offer the general consumer. According to Deloitte’s survey, now in its sixth year, 84 per cent of consumers are yet to be convinced to pay a typical extra $15 per month for 5G. Deloitte also notes fewer people anticipate making the switch to 5G when it becomes available to them. Mr Corbett described it thus: “We are probably entering a period of disillusionment with the technology until it becomes clearer for consumers on how 5G will improve their day-to-day lives.” Emerging technologies could provide the key application to spur uptake. VR or mobile game streaming should provide a use-case for 5G networks (although already technically possible over 4G, they are expected to receive a generational leap in terms of reliability once 5G is available). However, Mr Corbett warns 5G early adopters to be prepared NOT to receive the experience they might expect from a new generation network, citing “growing pains”. “Consumers should prepare to be disappointed with 5G in the short term, as the network will experience growing pains until it is fully established. [This] will come with small-cell deployments and the auction of mmWave in early 2021.” UK’s telecommunications sector feeling bullish in face of Brexit woes Data from the UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) indicates that the telecommunications sector is the UK’s fastest growing investor in research and development, with businesses “shrugging off” widespread concerns over Brexit [the

The US government has announced that decisions regarding individual companies’ involvement in the national telecommunications infrastructure will be made on a “case-by-case” basis. The procedure is the latest attempt to protect the network against national security threats. Wilbur Ross, the US commerce secretary, told reporters that the commerce department will be taking a “case-by-case, fact-specific approach to determine which transactions must be prohibited, or which can be mitigated.” In May 2019, the US government famously added Chinese technology company Huawei to its prohibited list, meaning that US firms are effectively banned from trading with one of the world’s largest 5G vendors. The details of how the USA will remove those companies perceived as a national security threat to its telecommunications infrastructure are yet to be revealed. “These actions will safeguard the information and communications technology supply chain,” Mr Ross said in a statement, adding, “These rules demonstrate our commitment to securing the digital economy, while also delivering on President Trump’s commitment to our digital infrastructure.” USA aims to strike out the threat to its telecoms networks

5G prediction – 65 per cent by 2025 Ericsson’s most recent ‘Mobility Report’ gave the company’s predictions for the pace of global 5G adoption. Ericsson is anticipating that 5G subscriptions will exceed 2.6 billion, globally, within six years, covering 65 per cent of the world. The report goes on to predict that total mobile subscriptions, including those to previous generation networks, will reach 8.9 billion in the same time frame (from 8 billion). The average monthly data-traffic-per- smartphone is forecast to increase to 24GB, from today’s 7.2GB, largely driven by data-hungry VR streaming and gaming. If in excess of 25 per cent of the global subscriptions are 5G by 2025 it will account for around 45 per cent of worldwide mobile data traffic. “It is encouraging to see that 5G now has broad support from almost all device makers. In 2020 5G-compatible devices will enter the volume market, which will scale up 5G adoption,” suggested Fredrik Jejdling, Ericsson’s executive vice president and head of networks. “The question is no longer if, but how quickly, we can convert use cases into relevant applications for consumers and enterprises. With 4G remaining a strong connectivity enabler in many parts of the world,

modernising networks is also key to this technological change.” Operators in Asia, Australia, Europe, the Middle East and North America began the implementation of 5G on their networks during 2019. Ericsson’s Mobility Report comments that adoption of 5G in South Korea, where it was launched in April 2019, has been particularly popular, with three million 5G subscriptions recorded within five months. A faster-than-anticipated adoption of 5G in China prompted Ericsson to review its estimate for the end of 2019 from ten million to 13 million. Ericsson is predicting that 5G uptake will be significantly faster than that of 4G, based on its current momentum. North America is expected to lead adoption with 74 per cent of subscriptions to be 5G by the end of 2025, followed by northeast Asia at 56 per cent, and Europe at 55 per cent. Where some see growth, others see apathy Notwithstanding Ericsson’s con- fidence, research from Deloitte suggests consumers are finding it difficult to get excited about 5G networks. The company’s multi-country study of mobile users, ‘Mobile Consumer Survey 2019’, says operators around the world are struggling to persuade customers to upgrade and pay more for their network.

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Wire & Cable ASIA – March/April 2020