WCA July 2015

From the Americas

Nigeria, the leading economy and most populous state in Africa, has just held a general election – a sign of democratic maturity likely to rekindle economic activity that could reverberate throughout Africa.  The strong American dollar has been a boon for most countries. It may be holding back USA exporters and depressing foreign earnings, but dollar strength is normally good for the world economy. Many countries can gear up for higher exports and their companies earn more abroad. As the world’s leading transaction and reserve currency, the greenback spreads confidence internationally. The decision by the Chinese leadership to let the renminbi follow the dollar upward and become, in time, a reserve currency, is a wise move. For one fewer cause of tension in the world, the US Congress no longer terms China a currency manipulator.  Modest growth is resuming in Europe, home to many of the world’s most technologically adept companies and much research and development brainpower. For the time being at least, the European Central Bank’s policy of quantitative easing – buying up government bonds to punch up the money supply and ward off deflation – is adding to the momentum of a recovery that was already underway at the turn of the year. Of related interest . . .  The managing director of the International Monetary Fund is by tradition a European. But, according to Mr Marsh of OMFIF, the odds are narrowing that Christine Lagarde, of France, whose term is up in 2016, will be replaced by a candidate from Asia or Latin America. He wrote: “The more the developing countries can use the tailwinds in the world economy in their own favour, the greater will be likelihood of a landmark decision that takes account of the international economic shift toward the emerging world.” A comparison of the world’s passports discloses wide variances in freedom of choice among destinations “A passport from a country on good diplomatic terms with its peers is a powerful tool, allowing holders to travel across borders with ease.” Sophia Yan of CNNMoney also noted that ease of movement is a speciality of the Canadian firm Arton Capital, which helps wealthy individuals obtain multiple citizenships, sometimes through immigrant investor programmes. On the basis of the number of countries that can be visited without a visa, or by getting one upon arrival, the Montreal-based company has ranked the world’s passports according to the global mobility they afford the holder. (“These Are the World’s Most Powerful Passports,” 17 th April) Tied for first place are USA and UK passports, which give holders access to 147 countries, Ms Yan reported.

The world A close study of the latest International Monetary Fund global economic forecast is more encouraging than the IMF will allow Even good news, when generated by the International Monetary Fund, is delivered with an implied worried frown. So it was in mid-April, as finance ministers and central bankers from 188 countries converged on Washington for the combined IMF-World Bank spring meetings. On 13 th April the IMF released a forecast of continuing recovery in the Eurozone and growth in the US economy of 3.1 per cent this year, handily outpacing the 2.4 per cent of 2014. The outlook for the broader global economy was even sunnier: expansion by 3.5 per cent this year and 3.8 per cent in 2016. But the tone of these tidings was typically guarded and cautionary. At a news conference, IMF Economic Counsellor Olivier Blanchard characterised this year’s growth as “moderate and uneven.” David Marsh, chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), a London-based think tank that promotes dialogue on world finance between private-sector and public institutions, decided to issue a corrective in advance to “the gloom [that] will be on plentiful display in Washington.” Here, abridged and lightly edited, are the main points in an article he prepared for USA Today (“Five Reasons to Be Upbeat on the World’s Economy,” 13 th April):  The US is powering its way to recovery, with a generally favourable influence on the rest of the world. Sound fiscal policies and appropriate monetary easing by the Federal Reserve have brought down US unemployment to 5.25 per cent and will sooner rather than later generate a healthy normalisation of American interest rates.  The fall in oil prices is almost universally good news for the world economy. Yes, it has imposed retrenchment on some prime oil exporters; but most oil producers have the reserves to overcome the setbacks. Oil importing countries, which include a large number of poorer developing nations as well as much of Europe, are huge beneficiaries of the moderate prices. This period of price benevolence will be extended at least a year or two by the wish of Saudi Arabia and other leading exporters to keep pumping out oil, as well as the relative buoyancy of USA shale production.  News from emerging market economies is positive despite their slower growth. The slowdown in China will put that economy on a more sustainable path, driven by domestic consumption rather than exports. India is on a more stable growth trajectory under a new prime minister. Brazil and Russia are accustoming themselves to sharp declines in activity.

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Wire & Cable ASIA – July/August 2015