WCA January 2015

From the Americas

2014 has been lowered significantly by -3.8 per cent to 56.9 Mt following 2.8 per cent growth in 2013. In Russia the weak trend in steel-using sectors in the second half of 2013 continued, leading in 2014 to -0.5 per cent growth reaching 43.2 Mt. In 2015 this will recover by 1.1 per cent to reach 43.7 Mt. In Ukraine, apparent steel use is expected to decline by -19 per cent in 2014. In 2015, assuming a stabilisation of the political situation, CIS steel demand will grow by 1.9 per cent. China :  Growth in apparent steel use in China is expected to slow to just one per cent in 2014 to 748.3 Mt as Beijing’s efforts to rebalance the economy weaken business sentiment and curtail investment. Apparent steel use will grow by only 0.8 per cent to reach 754.3 Mt in 2015, although possible use of targeted stimuli in response to slower growth in GDP (gross domestic product) could improve the outlook. India :  Steel demand in India is expected to grow by 3.4 per cent to 76.2 Mt in 2014, following growth of 1.8 per cent in 2013. A further six per cent growth in demand is a real possibility for 2015. Japan :  In Japan, following a 2.1 per cent increase in apparent steel use in 2013, steel demand in 2014 is expected to increase by a further 2.3 per cent to 66.8 Mt. However, with the fading of the positive impact of “Abenomics” (increased government spending together with unprecedented monetary easing, as promoted by Prime Minister Shinz ō Abe), steel demand is seen declining by -1.5 per cent in 2015. Middle East and North Africa :  In the MENA region, steel demand has been revised downwards but is still expected to grow by 3.3 per cent to 67.6 Mt in 2014 and by 6.6 per cent in 2015. Favouring ingenuity over layoffs, a US West Coast steel company not only survived the hard times but is flourishing “The ‘made in America’ culture that had some major corporations taking care of their workers from cradle to grave was shed like an old sweater in the Great Recession. Assembly lines were shaved to the bone. Layoff notices peppered lunchrooms.” Debra Gruszecki, a staff writer for the Press Enterprise (Riverside, California), had a purpose in revisiting the grim 2007-2009 period in US industry. A recent issue featured her profile of California Steel Industries, which laid off no one – even as output of its flat-rolled product plummeted from 2.1 million tons pre-recession to 800,000 tons in 2009. Not only did the Fontana-based company survive: it was in fighting trim when steel orders began to snap back in 2010. Production for the year revived to 1.3 million tons. The steel company that industrialist Henry J Kaiser founded in the early years of World War II has operated as California

Steel World Steel outlook: demand is picking up in the developed economies, but rebalancing exerts a retardant effect in China The World Steel Association (worldsteel) on 6 th October released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2014 and 2015. The SRO, issued twice a year, is informed by the chief economists of more than 40 worldsteel member companies. (Projections from worldsteel consider both real and apparent steel use. Apparent steel use reflects deliveries of steel to the marketplace from domestic steel producers as well as from importers. This differs from real steel use, which takes into account steel delivered to or drawn from inventories.) The worldsteel forecast for 2014 saw global apparent steel use increasing by two per cent to 1,562 Mt (megatonnes, equal to one million metric tons), following growth of 3.8 per cent in 2013. In 2015, world steel demand is forecast to grow by another two per cent to reach 1,594 Mt.  In the United States, after a decrease of -0.4 per cent in apparent steel use in 2013, steel demand is seen increasing by 6.7 per cent to 102.2 Mt in 2014 – a large upward revision helped by strong growth in the automotive and energy sectors. Steel demand is expected to increase by 1.9 per cent in 2015. In Mexico, steel demand is expected to grow by 6.9 per cent in 2014 and moderate to 3.5 per cent growth in 2015. In Central and South America most countries register negative growth in apparent steel use, expected to decline by -2.4 per cent to 48 Mt in 2014 from 4.2 per cent growth in 2013. Steel demand is expected to increase by 3.4 per cent in 2015. In Brazil, apparent steel use will contract by -4.1 per cent in 2014 to 25.3 Mt and will rebound by only 1.5 per cent in 2015. Europe :  The recovery in the European Union having gained further momentum in 2014, steel demand has grown considerably by four per cent to 145.9 Mt after increasing by 0.8 per cent in 2013. The improvement reflects a pickup in steel-using sectors of most EU countries, notably the United Kingdom and Poland. Apparent steel use in 2015 is projected to grow by 2.9 per cent. In Germany it is expected to show 3.2 per cent growth to reach 39.1 Mt in 2014 and 2.3 per cent in 2015. CIS :  Due to the crisis in Ukraine the outlook for apparent steel use in the former Soviet Republics of the CIS in REGIONAL SRO FORECASTS The Americas :

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Wire & Cable ASIA – January/February 2015

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