TPT September 2009

G lobal M arketplace

good control but that “significant slippage” had occurred since the beginning of this year. While the latest report, issued in July, found no outright violations of WTO rules, it also discerned no improvement in the general picture. › The Oxford group also considered the stalled Doha Development Round of WTO trade negotiations, taking note of Director General Lamy’s belief that its successful completion would help the world economy emerge from recession by boosting confidence, narrowing the scope for trade restrictions, and stimulating consumption. The recent summit of the Group of Eight industrialised nations in the Italian city of L’Aquila was seen as effectively endorsing this view, both in the official communiqué and in a statement, supported by 10 major non-G8 countries, calling for urgent resumption of the negotiations in Qatar and a “realistic” conclusion date of 2010. While no agreement on key issues is currently is in sight, prospects for the Doha Round would appear to have improved slightly. Notably, the US and India appear ready to engage in serious discussion of crucial differences over protection of industry, and President Barack Obama is expected to make a major statement soon on US trade policy. Also helpful, in the view of Oxford Analytica, the Indian general election is over, and both India and the US have new trade ministers.

Trade › If mounting job losses do lie ahead for France, even as the country successfully works itself out of its slump [See “French economic stimulus,” above], this should not be dismissed as a lagging indicator. According to the independent strategic-consulting firm Oxford Analytica, rising unemployment is in fact a strong sign of social pressures that can drive governments to restrict or distort trade. (“Trade Protectionism Shadows Recession,” Forbes, 16 July.) Oxford Analytica, which draws on a 1,000-strong network of experts at leading universities and research institutions worldwide, considers it “probably inevitable” that the economic crisis would drive governments to use loopholes in trade rules to introduce measures in restraint of trade. While “so far” there have been no blatant breaches of the rules, it warns of severe testing in conditions of rising unemployment. Similarly alert to the dangers of unemployment, World Trade Organisation (WTO) Director General Pascal Lamy warned that “the stress test of the multilateral trading system is still to come”. The WTO now produces quarterly reports that track tariff increases, new non-tariff and anti-dumping measures, and financial measures that favour the member-nations’ domestic goods and services over imports. The Oxford Analytica report issued in April found that governments had been keeping protectionist pressures under fairly

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