TPT September 2009

G lobal M arketplace

Nearer-term economic news from China would appear to support these predictions. On 16 July, the government at Beijing said that the Chinese economy – propelled by aggressive bank lending and a big economic stimulus package – grew 7.9% in the second quarter as compared with the equivalent period of 2008. The growth this time was driven by strong auto and property sales, a rebound in manufacturing, and huge infrastructure spending which, incidentally, is propping up global commodity prices. Gross domestic product figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in Beijing, suggest that China will most likely achieve the 8% full-year growth target it set for 2009. Notes on the UK › With UK property investors returning to market, Britain appears to be better positioned than the USA to lead a recovery in commercial real estate. One American firm of realty analysts estimates London’s market cycle to be about six months ahead of that of New York, thus at least that much closer to recovery. Some analysts credit the British advantage partly to the greater price transparency in that market, where property funds traditionally attract more small investors. When the market dropped, many of these investors took themselves out of the funds, forcing companies to revalue their assets more frequently – with all that that means for accurate accountancy and responsible decision-making. Another distinction between the UK and US property markets is that Britain’s is financed more through commercial bank loans and less by mortgage-backed securities, the obligations implicated most heavily in the subprime-debt debacle in the US financial industry. › According to the Carbon Trust, a London-based group dedicated to the development of commercial low-carbon technologies, the potential for wind and wave power in Britain is immense. A new report from the group asserts that, with carefully targeted subsidies and regulations, Britain could build 29 gigawatts of electrical capacity from offshore wind (the global total is now 66gW) by 2020, giving it 45% of the offshore power market. The report also noted that Britain accounts for a quarter of all wave power technologies, strongly suggesting that the country “could be the ‘natural owner’ of the global wave power market” in this century. Writing on 3 July, James Kanter of the ecology blog Green Inc reviewed new analysis by the Carbon Trust indicating that, in addition to the over $4bn a year that British businesses could save themselves through carbon reduction methods, Britain could generate up to $114bn for the economy and almost 250,000 jobs from offshore wind and wave power. He quoted David McVeigh, an executive from a heavy industries division of Harland and Wolff, shipbuilders, as saying that he discerns “a great opportunity” in marine power. “Our investment in this sector has resulted in our busiest activity level for many years, building offshore wind farm foundations such as jackets, monopiles, and gravity bases,” said Mr McVeigh. “In the UK we have all the right ingredients – reliable wind, wave, and tidal resources in reasonably shallow water close to population centres that need energy.”

Oil and gas In a reversal, Russia recruits Royal Dutch Shell for its Sakhalin project Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on 27 June that Royal Dutch Shell Plc had been invited by Russia to participate in the development of two oil fields on Sakhalin, the island north of Japan that has estimated reserves of 14 billion barrels of oil and 96 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. As reported by the Russian news agency RIA, Mr Putin struck a markedly collegial note in his meeting in Moscow with Shell’s CEO, Jeroen Van der Seer, making plain that he envisions a long-term relationship. Stressing Shell’s expertise in gas liquefaction, Mr Putin told the oil major’s chief, “I expect it is quite possible to continue cooperation with Shell on other sections. We are speaking about sections farther away from the shore, at greater depths (viz. Sakhalin III and Sakhalin IV), and here your experience could be in demand.” The meeting of minds followed a period of strained relations between the Kremlin and the Western energy company over one of the world’s largest natural gas fields. In 2007, Shell was forced to relinquish its controlling interest in Sakhalin II development to Russia’s state-controlled gas monopoly OAO Gazprom for $7.5bn. But Shell retained 25.7% of the stake, and helped launch a $22bn liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant, Russia’s first, in February.

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