TPT March 2024

INDUSTRY 360

Long-term predictions about tube and pipe demand Trends in energy consumption hint at the future of tube and pipe products

By Eric Lundin sales engineer and marketing manager, T&H Lemont Inc

Coal. Petroleum. Natural gas. Looking back, it’s difficult to imagine how modern industry would have developed without these energy-dense commodities. Looking forward, we’re already seeing a shift to other energy sources, and this trend is gathering steam. Of course the tube and pipe industry plays a central role in the energy market, so their futures are linked. As we rely less on traditional fuels in the future, will we rely less on tube and pipe? Certainly. But this doesn’t mean that industry is changing so rapidly that tube and pipe producers and fabricators need to look for other work. For the most part, big and sweeping changes take place gradually. To be sure, some other uses for tubular products are likely to grow, specifically in manufacturing and construction. As cutting, bending and end-forming machines become more capable, tube becomes more useful in manufactured products. And as more architects become familiar with the mechanical properties and aesthetic appeal of tube, it’s destined for greater use in construction. Electricity generation Coal-powered steam engines were used to power factories in Britain 200 years ago, eventually leading to centralised electricity-generating stations and widespread power distribution. To this day, conventional power stations rely on steam to drive massive turbines to generate power. The heat that turns water into steam to spin the turbines comes from a variety of fuels, including coal, natural gas, uranium, and a newcomer, concentrated solar power. However, many global drivers are changing how we produce and use electric power. These include the globalisation of trade; the growing demand for power; legislation that decarbonises energy production and transportation; and the substitution of renewables for traditional fuels. While these are separate factors, they overlap, and changes in one can affect the others, providing a future with several possible scenarios. Still, these trends have been taking shape for some time and offer clues as to the The demand for electric power is extremely dynamic over time. Understanding how the demand for power has changed over the last few decades involves at least four factors – population growth, income growth, the spread of industrialisation and strides in efficiency. First, population growth (see Figure 1). The world’s population grew from 4.444 billion in 1980 to 7.975 billion in 2024, an increase of 1.8 times. However, the demand for future roles of tube and pipe. The demand for power

electricity didn’t rise at the same rate. The globalisation of trade boosted incomes and millions of formerly impoverished became active consumers of goods, services and power. According to the World Bank, merchandise as a share of the world’s gross domestic product grew from 30 per cent in 1988 to 50 per cent over the next 25 years. The average income worldwide increased 24 per cent, while the number of people in extreme poverty – subsisting on $2.15 per day – decreased from 35 per cent to 10 per cent. That number continued to fall, and according to data from 2022, the number of people in poverty was 8 per cent of the world’s population. One result of rising incomes is an increase in the cumulative demand for electric power. According to data aggregator Statista Inc, the global demand for electric power increased from 7,323 terawatt-hours in 1980 to 25,530 terawatt-hours in 2022. So while the world’s population grew by a factor of 1.8, the demand for electricity grew 3.5 times. The globalisation of trade itself drove some of the increasing demand for electric power. As more nations became links in modern supply chains and incomes rose, those nations industrialised, adding power-generating capacity to power factories and expanding agriculture and food processing capability. The burgeoning consumer electronics field is less significant but still worth mentioning. Nowadays, everyone is using or charging a phone or tablet. Each of these doesn’t demand much power, but Statista estimates that the Figure 1: From 1980 to 2022, the world’s population increased from 4.444 billion to 7.975 billion, growing by a factor of 1.8. Electrical power consumption grew much faster, increasing from 7.3 thousand terawatt-hours to 25.5 thousand terawatt-hours, a factor of 3.5 Sources: Worldometers.info, Statista Inc

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MARCH 2024