TPT March 2017

start making compact cars at a facility jointly operated with Nissan Motor Co in Aguascalientes next year. › If Mr Trump does succeed in penalising the German carmakers, they will be affected unequally. Bloomberg ’s Ms Behrmann and Mr Rauwald noted that BMW’s annual capacity of 150,000 deliveries out of Mexico is a small share of its two million car sales last year. Volkswagen’s Audi luxury unit is the most vulnerable to threats of import duties because it, too, makes about 150,000 vehicles in Mexico annually but has no US facilities “that it could use as a bargaining chip.” Perhaps the most salient datum of all: the US is the second- largest export market for German automakers. › While carmakers have particular issues with the new occupant of the White House, German companies generally are charting their American paths without evident concern about the changeover. As noted by Natascha Divac of the Wall Street Journal , German firms in several sectors – energised by low interest rates and rebounding markets – are boosting their stateside expansion plans and ramping up their dealmaking, in which Mr Trump famously claims unique expertise. On the day before the inaugural Ms Divac wrote, from Frankfurt, “German companies are accelerating their expansion in the US, undaunted by President-elect Donald Trump’s threats to limit international trade and uncertainty surrounding his future stance on foreign takeovers.” (“German Companies on a Tear in US,” 19 January)

Oi l and gas A 19-million-acre Alaskan wildlife refuge, coveted for its untapped oil, attracts new attention. But that may be all “Far above the Arctic Circle, one of the longest-running controversies in US oil drilling is about to reignite.” Markets reporter Alex Nussbaum of Bloomberg Businessweek was referring to the expected push by Republicans, buoyed by the election of President Donald Trump, to allow oil exploration in the US Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). The future of the frigid wilderness in northeastern Alaska, placed off-limits by Congress in 1980, has been a source of pitched battle between drillers and conservationists for decades. Given Mr Trump’s pledge to raise US energy production, and with his party in control of Congress, the outlook for commercial development of the refuge is looking very much better. But, even apart from unremitting opposition from conservationists, factors identified by Mr Nussbaum could curb enthusiasm for exploiting the reserve any time soon. (“Big Oil May Finally Get to Drill in the Arctic – But Is It Worth It?,” 20 January) For one, he noted, while the US government estimates that the area could hold 12 billion barrels of crude, placing it among the biggest untapped oilfields in the nation, “no one’s

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MARCH 2017