TPT January 2019

G LOBA L MARKE T P L AC E

white (BIW), the rudimentary sheet metal welded structure that forms the “shell” of the vehicle. With HFQ in its quiver, Mr Huetter observed, Novelis has body-in-white squarely in its sights. (“Novelis Pursuing BIW Aluminum Competitive With Steel,” 9 November) F usion technology seen as key “The strategy is to be able to do niche volumes in the hundreds and mass-production volumes in the hundreds of thousands,” Novelis external communications manager Mike Touhill told RDN . He clarified that the reference was to aluminium parts, not cars sold. By Mr Touhill’s reckoning, one to 20 or more HFQ-formed parts per vehicle could mean millions of parts for a high-volume platform. Novelis had said previously that it planned to focus on three items “that absolutely matter” to collision repairers: auto bodies, new alloys and joining. In terms of joining, the company said it was pursuing ways to attach aluminium to other metals, claiming that its fusion technology is proving itself in the spot welding and laser welding required for mixed-material architectures. Mr Huetter of RDN warned that aluminium on the exterior of a vehicle can dictate that a repair shop have specially trained technicians as well as dedicated space and tools. Otherwise, among other issues, the repairer risks galvanic corrosion arising from steel and aluminium contact. › General Motors Corp would seem to have taken its precau- tions. Mr Huetter reported that, while the carmaker has mainly built its bodies-in-white from steel, its upcoming certification programme requires that all GM shops have aluminium ca- pabilities similar to those stipulated for its certified shops by all-aluminium F-150 manufacturer Ford. GM had “too much aluminum” not to do so, GM customer care and aftersales col- lision manager John Eck told RDN early last year. An advisory to investors gives auto makers much to think about In its autumn 2018 report to clients, T Rowe Price reviewed a number of breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and energy that are increasing the effectiveness of these technologies and lowering costs at an impressive rate. According to the Baltimore, USA-based investment house, the full extent of the transformative power of these advances remains largely underappreciated by investors and consumers alike. But, in the view of Price analysts Paul Greene, Joel Grant and Ryan Hedrick, the day is approaching when these burgeoning technologies will reshape entire industries. Here, abridged and lightly edited, are their major points on the prospects for the automotive industry, which they see as facing disruption on two fronts: A confluence of machine learning and cheaper and stronger computing power is creating potential for a fully autonomous vehicle. This presents several challenges for traditional automakers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Machine learning and robust computing power are not among core competencies of these firms.

US shale oil production is expected to plateau in the mid- 2020s, the IEA said, ultimately falling by 1.5 million bpd in the 2030s. After 2025, the report noted, the “baton gradually passes to OPEC to meet continued – albeit slowing – growth in global oil demand.” As for the current situation, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported earlier in November that US crude production had climbed to 11.3 million bpd. That would put the US on a par with Russia, which in 2017 surpassed Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest producer of crude. The IEA has said it does not expect global demand to peak before 2040. Demand growth through to 2025 should be driven by China, and from the late 2020s to 2040 by India and the Middle East, according to the agency. › Mr Alessi took note of OPEC’s own long-term forecast on the global oil landscape, released in September. The cartel said it expects US shale oil production to peak by the late 2020s, triggering renewed demand for OPEC’s crude after an expected decline and stagnation. Automot i ve A British quenching technology could augur a future of steel-frame cars with a great deal of exterior aluminium Most of the commentary on the competition between steel and aluminium for preferment in the automotive industry comes from the metal producers themselves. Repairer Driven News (Kentwood, Michigan, USA) was founded by the Society of Collision Repair Specialists as a source of news and information of interest to the collision-repair specialist. Recently, RDN ran an article from that perspective. RDN’ s John Huetter reported the announcement by Novelis Inc (Atlanta, Georgia), a producer of aluminium rolled products and the world’s largest recycler of aluminium, that it was teaming up with Impression Technologies, of Coventry, UK. Novelis’s stated purpose is to promote the use of more hot- stamped aluminium by automakers. Impression Technologies is the developer of the hot form quench (HFQ) technology, which originated at Imperial College, London. HFQ enables high- and ultra-high-strength aluminium to be formed into complex-shaped parts, reportedly reducing part counts, weight, cost and tool investment. According to Novelis, Impression Technologies holds the rights to HFQ, with all the promise that holds for the expanded use of aluminium in the high-volume automotive and transport markets. In announcing the joint effort, Novelis served notice that it was “refusing to cede structural components to the steel industry,” wrote Mr Huetter. He perceives “a mixed-material trend” in recent vehicles, with the aluminium industry owning vehicle doors, hoods, tailgates, trunks and fenders; and steel winning the body-in-

58

www.read-tpt.com

JANUARY 2019