TPT-January-2015

Global Marketplace

• The average annual decline rates in the seven shale gas basins examined equals between 23 per cent and 49 per cent. Translation by Mr Horn: Between one-quarter and one-half of all production in each basin must be replaced annually just to keep “the drilling treadmill” running at the same pace and keep getting the same amount of gas out of the earth. (“The Uncertain Future of Shale Gas: Report Casts Doubt on US Hydraulic Fracking Production Numbers,” 31 October) Mr Hughes said in a press release accompanying publication of his report, “By asking the right questions you soon realise that, if the future of US oil and natural gas production depends on resources in the country’s deep shale deposits, we are in for a big disappointment in the longer term.” › For his part, Mr Horn of CRG noted that the shale boom has created a revolution of sorts for corporate interests across the supply chain: from the world of plastics to manufacturing to the pipeline business to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals and far beyond – creating something akin to a “complex.” This implies confidence in a nearly infinite future for shale oil and gas. To the executive director of the Post Carbon Institute, Asher Miller, this is a false premise that has generated false promises.

The calculations are by the Post Carbon Institute (Santa Rosa, California). PCI is a think tank focused on sustainability issues. In the report “Drilling Deeper: A Reality Check on US Government Forecasts for a Lasting Tight Oil and Shale Gas Boom,” PCI fellow J David Hughes analysed the production statistics for seven tight oil basins and seven gas basins which, respectively, account for 88 per cent and 89 per cent of current US shale gas production. Mr Hughes is a geoscientist who for over three decades analysed energy resources for the Geological Survey of Canada. His findings differ markedly from the roseate projections published by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), a statistical sub-unit of the US Department of Energy (DOE). Among the key points of his report, as summarised by Mr Horn: • Three-year average well-decline rates for the seven shale oil basins measured range from an astounding 60 per cent to 91 per cent; ie, over a given three years the amount of oil coming out of the wells decreases by that percentage, yielding 43 per cent to 64 per cent of the estimated ultimate recovery achieved during the first three years. • In terms of well productivity, four of the seven shale gas basins are already in terminal decline. • The three-year average well-decline rates for the seven shale gas basins measured ranges from 74 per cent to 82 per cent.

Dorothy Fabian, Features Editor (USA)

Established in 1994, Shanghai Yueyuechao Steel Pipe Group has now been developed into a comprehensive enterprise which is specialized in carbon steel, low-alloy seamless and welded tubes and pipes manufacturing and exporting. Our production range: Seamless tubes: 1/8"~28" in OD, 1.5~50mm in WT. LSAW pipes: 14"~56" in OD, 8~50mm in WT. 3-rolling bending plate welded pipes: 40"~158" in OD, 15.9~140mm in WT.

Gas cylinder pipe: 62~711mm in OD, 2.3~18mm in WT. Our main certs: API/ISO/BV/DNV/ABS/LR/TUV/GL/

TEL: +86-21-31108050 FAX: +86-21-31108052 E-MAIL: red@yyc88.cn

WEBSITE: http://www.yyc88.com HEAD OFFICE ADD: 10–11th Floor, No.11 Building, No.1588, Youyi Rd., Baoshan District, Shanghai, China

75

www.read-tpt.com

J anuary 2015