EuroWire July 2016

Transatlantic cable

As to what lies ahead (ie after 8 th November, when the nation chooses President Barack Obama’s successor), the economists sampled by the WSJ shift away from their sunny hindsight. On average, they see a 20 per cent chance that the USA will fall into recession in 2017. (It is perhaps worth noting here that the recession predicted by many economists for 2016 failed to materialise.) They believe the pace of job growth is likely to slow. And they worry about the risk of economic fallout in the USA if China’s economy continues to deteriorate. Mr Zumbrun summed up: “The outlook is far from rosy, economists say. But going back to a 1960s standard of living wouldn’t help.” † Picking up the optimism where the WSJ economists left it o , the respected investment rm T Rowe Price (Baltimore, Maryland) provided these “key takeaways” from its Spring 2016 report to investors: † The probability of a USA recession remains low, with 2 per cent growth expected this year † The link between the USA stock market and the economy is weak, with 21 of 32 major market declines since 1948 not leading to recessions † The United States is not isolated and global headwinds are not likely to go away. But slowing growth in China and elsewhere abroad is not likely to trigger a USA recession † Credit markets are healthy despite stress in high-yield bonds related to the energy sector; and † The pain from falling oil prices has come quicker than its bene ts, but the pain mainly has been in the oil patch

Energy

While seemingly aware of the danger, a sector especially vulnerable to cyberattack is slow to put protections in place According to the US Department of Homeland Security, the energy sector faces more cyber attacks than any other American industry. As reported by Barbara L Vergetis Lundin in Smart Grid News , this conclusion is seconded by the Portland, Oregon-based software company Tripwire, which provides information technology solutions for security and compliance automation. Ms Vergetis Lundin, of the FierceMarkets Energy Group , wrote that, in a survey of more than 150 IT professionals in the energy, utilities, and oil and gas industries, conducted in the USA in November 2015, Tripwire found that 77 per cent of respondents had experienced a rise in successful cyber attacks in the 12 months to that date. Some 68 per cent said the rate of successful cyber attacks had increased by more than 20 per cent in just the previous month. More speci cally, 78 per cent of respondents reported having experienced, over the same one-year period, a cyber attack from an external source; and 30 per cent knew of an attack from an inside employee. Nearly 45 per cent said they had not gathered enough information to identify the sources of the attacks. And 22 per cent acknowledged that their organisations did not have processes in place to identify and protect sensitive and con dential information.

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July 2016